TOP TIPS for Week 2 @ Wimbledon!
Posted on July 1, 2012 by Sam Foster
- Expect the unexpected - As has already been shown in dramatic fashion, upsets are possible and sometimes in the most unlikely situations. Seeds have been falling like autumn leaves in the women’s draw whilst the men’s side was responsible for the most surprising result of them all. Nadal’s gripping loss to Lukas Rosol in the second round will not be the last outstanding upset of the Championship and so small stakes on some longer prices can only be encouraged.
- Brian Baker is back – After multiple surgeries and a seven year absence from the game, former US Open junior champion Brian Baker has returned in style to the business end of the men’s game. Baker’s story is a remarkable one and every credit should be rewarded, as many would have given up for good. Baker has been playing some excellent tennis for some time now as he had to begin at the very bottom rung of the ATP ladder at Futures levels and then steadily climb. A win at the Savannah challenger was followed by a final appearance in Nice and a win at Rolland Garros before his hugely impressive run this week. Baker should be sharing favouritism with his fourth round opponent Philipp Kohlschreiber but has been chalked up at odds that assume he is still finding his feet back in the game. Baker knows exactly where right and left are and should be treated with a enormous amount of respect when last 16 selections are chosen.
- Murray’s Red Herring– A lot has been made about how difficult Andy Murray’s draw has been, but this has been somewhat of a misconception. Granted, there are a lot of players who’s games are suited to the grass of SW19 but so is the Scot’s in many ways, so some potential ‘banana slips’ are nowhere near as perilous as some observers would have you believe. The exit of Nadal is clearly a significant break for Murray and expect him to take full advantage of it to reach his first final here. There is a gulf between him and the top three but there is just as big of one between the Scot and those below.
- Federer watch – Federer was really stretched against a player who is no better than a common journeyman in the form of the brittle Frenchman Julien Benneteau, and a watching brief for his next match is the best advice. Although it is unlikely that world number 75 Xavier Malisse will have the beating of the Swiss, it didn’t seem very plausible that Federer would have to play Benneteau for over four hours, and the six time champ has to be tread carefully for the next tie at least.
- Italian metal – In the first post for the Championships which gave ten insights to hopefully aid profit-making over the next fortnight, there was a point which highlighted how some players will overreact to a player’s abilities (or lack of) on grass. Francesca Schiavone has been a case in point so far, as in the two of her three games she has been priced as the outsider, even though she has held the higher ranking and possessed more ability than her opponents. Her next opponent is the defending champion and so although Schiavone should not be odds-on this time around, she should also not be an 11/2 shot. Schiavone continues to surprise the bookmakers so don’t let the burly Italian do the same to you.
- Happy ending? – Kim Clijsters was the headline tip in the Women’s Preview and there has been nothing so far to deter that prediction. Clijsters has played well and in a draw where so many of her opponents could wilt at any point, the second most decorated player in the draw has every chance of bringing some credibility back to this writers’ tipping. A lot of the value has now disappeared but profits can still be made from match betting as Clijsters won’t be giving that final farewell wave to the Wimbledon faithful just yet.
- Deciding set decisions – As the draw thins out, the rewards become bigger and more real the propensity for nerves is increased. As a result there is definite value in selecting games, especially in the women’s draw, to require a deciding set as once the draw begins to get tight invariably so do the players.
- Lethargy – As is the nature of Grand Slams, some players have had much easier passages to the second week than others. Subsequently it is important to take the time to see who has been out on court for gruelling matches in previous rounds and similarly which players have had the luxury of extra days off. Although this can all be discounted when discussing the likes of Djokovic and Murray (their recovery abilities are extra-terrestrial), this does apply to the lower ranked players who are less experienced in these events and more susceptible to the wear and tear of Grand Slam matches.
- Choose your man carefully – Bookmakers have different rules on tennis betting and at the stage in the tournament when retirements are more likely, these rules are important to take notice of. Some will pay out on the result as soon as a ball has been struck, however, others take the view that the entire match has to be completed unless your stake will just get refunded. Subsequently if you think that the opponent of your selection is vulnerable to injury or tiredness and may throw the towel in, you need to ensure that you are betting with a firm that will pay out regardless of whether the result has been determined because of a premature retirement. Beware.
- Pleasure – Most importantly try to take pleasure in the tennis if you are betting on it. If you are really looking forward to the game, just as a tennis fan, then in many ways it would be advisable to not bet at all or to keep stakes at a gentle level. There is nothing worse than having an epic game of tennis tarnished or even ruined by the strain of seeing your money lost, and so if the decision is too difficult to make jut sit back and watch rather than stand up and fret.